South Lake Tahoe firefighters defend the neighborhood above Holiday Market on Iroquois Circle in Meyers the night the 2021 Caldor Fire jumped Christmas Valley. (Photo: Jim Drennan)

With the three main factors of wildfire being fuel, weather and topography, fire officials are worried this could be a bad year.

Fuel moisture is a biggie—even for pine trees. It’s one thing when grasses and other low growing vegetation dry out, it’s another when trees have little water content—which is the case this year—because a crown fire could be devastating.

“Regional and national fire activity is already on the rise with resources being mobilized early this year. The fire season is year-round and LTBMU firefighters actively respond to incidents throughout the year,” said John Chester, acting fire management officer for Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit.

Historically, fire season was May-October, though now it’s year-round—even for Tahoe firefighters. This has more to do with personnel and equipment being sent to out-of-area blazes.

Lake Valley Fire Protection District Fire Chief John McNamara, who worked 20 years for Reno Fire, said the worst fires there were in October, November, December and January. Plus, the town of Paradise in Butte County was wiped out on a mid-November day in 2018.

“The National Interagency Coordination Center predicts significant wildfire potential outlook starting in June for our area. The heat wave we experienced in March was well above normal temperatures and it diminished the already low snowpack,” said Keegan Schaffer, wildland fire and fuels division chief with Tahoe Douglas Fire Protection District. “Predictions say we will also enter back into a drought this summer.”

Justin Collins, National Weather Service meteorologist in Reno, said the Climate Prediction Center forecasts above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation through June for the Lake Tahoe Basin.

“We are going to see extra dry fuels heading into summer,” Collins said. “All the ingredients coming together are not good.”

Tahoe’s topography—being a basin—can be problematic. Fire loves to run uphill. So, depending on the ignition point and initial winds, it could be devastating.

“I think everybody is on edge just based on the low precipitation we have had,” South Lake Tahoe Fire Chief Jim Drennan said. “All of us are paying close attention to fuel weather and predicted weather coming in.”

The scar from the 2002 Gondola Fire as seen from Rabe Meadow in Stateline. (Image: Kathryn Reed)

Prior Tahoe fires

Wind was a huge issue when someone threw a cigarette from a Heavenly Mountain Resort gondola car between towers 11 and 12 on July 2, 2002. This became the 673-acre Gondola Fire that threatened 550 structures and forced the evacuation of hundreds of people.

The June 24, 2007, Angora Fire was wind driven from the get-go; wiping out 254 homes in the Upper Truckee neighborhood in a matter of hours and charring more than 3,000 acres.

Drennan said there was one red flag day last year, but expects several this summer. These National Weather Service alerts warn firefighters, land managers and the public to conditions that are ripe for fire ignitions and their rapid spread.

Schaffer said the norm is to have about 15 red flag days a season; an increase since the Gondola and Angora fires when a half dozen was common. Tahoe Douglas flies a red flag at its stations on these days, and has info on its website for the public to access.

The rise in red flag days is one reality of climate change. Decreasing snowpack and increased rainfall are other indicators.

Until the 2021 Dixie and Caldor fires, most experts believed the Sierra Crest would be a natural barrier. Mother Nature proved those people wrong. Wildfires are getting bigger and more destructive, turning most everything in their path to ash.

“I never thought in my wildest dreams we would have a fire like that move into the basin. It was a real eye-opener,” McNamara said of Caldor. While he has only been with the Tahoe department since December, for two weeks he worked the Caldor as a member of the Reno Fire Department.

The Gondola, Angora and Caldor fires were all human caused, though no one has been held accountable for any of them. Scars from these fires are still prominent on the South Shore.

“When the Caldor Fire burned into the Tahoe basin, it already had a lot of energy, which is evident from the fire scar that spans the hillside. The Angora Fire was the same type of wind-driven fire which accounted for its rapid spread,” Chester said. “This year, wildland fuels are ripe for burning sooner due to our dry winter and low snowpack. We can expect wildfires to be more difficult to control, and we will rely on more resources to suppress them.”

California Department of Water Resources reps find little snow to measure near Echo Summit on April 1. (Image: Andrew Nixon/California Department of Water Resources)

Preparation matters 

April’s snow survey on Echo Summit near the entrance to Sierra-at-Tahoe was the second lowest April measurement on record at that location. The lowest was in 2015 when there was no snow on the ground, whereas a few patches existed this April.

Beyond what this means for water users in the flatlands, it’s a foreboding message for Tahoe fire officials who know this means fuels will dry out so much sooner at lake level and in the higher reaches of the basin.

These folks are doing what they can to prep for this season, but also want residents to do their part.

South Lake Tahoe Fire brought its fuels reduction crew in in April, a month earlier than normal. This was a team of four and is now eight. Three defensible space inspectors are being hired. Funding for these positions comes from outside the normal fire budget.

Tahoe Douglas has wrapped up its seasonal hiring with more than 30 on board.

The local Forest Service office is bringing on additional first responders, with annual fire training under way.

“LTBMU fire staffing is comparable to previous years, and we expect to fully staff our fire engines, Tallac Hotshots and prevention crew,” Chester said.

Shelter drills, hands-on training and more prep work are all part of each agency’s protocols. Lake Tahoe Regional Fire Chiefs is a group that meets regularly, as do teams specific to California and Nevada.

Lake Valley this spring applied for a federal grant that would go toward the purchase of more equipment.

“The LTBMU will closely coordinate with the Northern California Geographic Area Coordination to preposition shared resources at the airport when available as we have done in past years,” Chester said.

The Forest Service and CalFire move equipment, especially aerial apparatuses, around as warranted. Sometimes it’s precautionary, other times it’s to fight a fire.

“From the prevention side, we provide numerous services and education to our community members regarding preplanning for evacuations, home hardening, defensible space and how to build their situational awareness during fire season,” Tahoe Douglas interim Fire Chief Bryce Cranch said.

Lake Valley crews in May met with fire adaptive communities in the Meyers area. When these neighbors have work days, the plan is to send an engine so personnel may answer questions about mitigating the spread of fire.

Fire officials want locals to work on creating defensible space where they live and work, clear pine needs from roofs and gutters, have a go-bag ready and heed evacuation notifications early.

“You need to anticipate you will not be getting any help. The worst case scenario is your house needs to survive without a fire engine in your driveway,” McNamara said. “Defensible spacing does wonders.”

It’s also encouraged to download the Watch Duty app, sign up for notifications like reverse 911, bookmark the Perimeter Map website and have an evacuation route thought out ahead of time.

And when there is a fire—because it’s not an if situation, it’s a when—don’t fly a drone. The USFS reported 218 drone sightings above wildfires in 2025. The seven prior years there were a total of 125. Airspaces have to shut down when drones fly, so that means fire suppression is on hold.

The other thing is to become educated about is fire restrictions whether it’s at a residence, campground or in the forest.

What might prevent an exaggerated local fire season is doing snow and rain dances early so the dry terrain isn’t a tinderbox well into the fall.

Note: A version of this story first appeared in the Tahoe Mountain News.